{"id":1237,"date":"2012-05-11T17:01:46","date_gmt":"2012-05-12T01:01:46","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/smartandresponsible.com\/blog\/?p=1237"},"modified":"2012-05-09T10:13:27","modified_gmt":"2012-05-09T18:13:27","slug":"real-estate-market-realistic","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/smartandresponsible.com\/blog\/real-estate-market-realistic\/","title":{"rendered":"\u5bb6\u3001\u8cb7\u3044\u6642\uff1f\uff0d\u30a2\u30e1\u30ea\u30ab\u4e0d\u52d5\u7523\u5e02\u5834\u3092\u8aad\u3080\uff08\uff12\uff09"},"content":{"rendered":"

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 <\/p>\n

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\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

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 <\/p>\n

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 <\/p>\n

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 <\/p>\n

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\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

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 <\/p>\n

\u7a0e\u63a7\u9664\u306e\u304a\u30c8\u30af\u5ea6\u306f\u3001\u53ce\u5165\u306b\u3088\u3063\u3066\u9055\u3044\u307e\u3059<\/h3>\n

\u30e2\u30fc\u30b2\u30fc\u30b8\u306e\u5229\u5b50\u3068\u30d7\u30ed\u30d1\u30c6\u30a3\u30fb\u30bf\u30c3\u30af\u30b9\u306f\u3001\u7a0e\u63a7\u9664\u306e\u5bfe\u8c61\u3068\u306a\u308b\u3053\u3068\u306f\u4e00\u822c\u7684\u306b\u77e5\u3089\u308c\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\uff08Itemized Deduction\u3092\u9078\u3093\u3060\u5834\u5408\uff09\u3002\u3053\u306e\u63a7\u9664\u306e\u984d\u306f\u3001\uff08\u5229\u5b50\uff0b\u30d7\u30ed\u30d1\u30c6\u30a3\u30fb\u30bf\u30c3\u30af\u30b9\uff09\uff58\u30bf\u30c3\u30af\u30b9\u30fb\u30d6\u30e9\u30b1\u30c3\u30c8\u3067\u8a08\u7b97\u3055\u308c\u307e\u3059\u3002\u3064\u307e\u308a\u3001\u9ad8\u3044\u5bb6\u3092\u8cb7\u3063\u3066\u30ed\u30fc\u30f3\u3092\u305f\u304f\u3055\u3093\u7d44\u307f\u3001\u5229\u5b50\u304c\u591a\u304f\u30d7\u30ed\u30d1\u30c6\u30a3\u30fb\u30bf\u30c3\u30af\u30b9\u304c\u9ad8\u3044\u307b\u3069\u3001\u63a7\u9664\u984d\u306f\u591a\u304f\u306a\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002\u307e\u305f\u540c\u69d8\u306b\u3001\u53ce\u5165\u304c\u9ad8\u3044\u3001\u3064\u307e\u308a\u30bf\u30c3\u30af\u30b9\u30fb\u30d6\u30e9\u30b1\u30c3\u30c8\u304c\u9ad8\u3044\u307b\u3069\u3001\u63a7\u9664\u984d\u306f\u591a\u304f\u306a\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002\u3064\u307e\u308a\u3001\u304a\u91d1\u6301\u3061\u306b\u969b\u9650\u306a\u304f\u6709\u5229\u306a\u7a0e\u63a7\u9664\u3067\u3042\u308a\u3001\u305d\u308c\u3086\u3048\u6279\u96e3\u3082\u96c6\u3081\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n

\u3064\u307e\u308a\u3001\u5df7\u3067\u7a0e\u63a7\u9664\u3001\u7a0e\u63a7\u9664\u3068\u9a12\u304c\u308c\u307e\u3059\u304c\u3001\u305d\u306e\u52b9\u679c\u306f\u4eba\u305d\u308c\u305e\u308c\u3068\u3044\u3046\u3053\u3068\u3067\u3059<\/strong>\u3002<\/span>\u305f\u3068\u3048\u3070\u3001\u63a7\u9664\u5bfe\u8c61\u984d\u304c$15,000\u3067\u30d6\u30e9\u30b1\u30c3\u30c8\u304c25%\u306e\u5834\u5408\u306e\u63a7\u9664\u984d\u306f$3,750\u3067\u3059\u304c\u3001\u5bfe\u8c61\u984d\u304c $30,000\u30d6\u30e9\u30b1\u30c3\u30c8\u304c33%\u306a\u3089\u3070\u63a7\u9664\u984d\u306f$9,900\u3068\u306a\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002\u5bb6\u306e\u8cfc\u5165\u3092\u8003\u3048\u3066\u3044\u308b\u306e\u3067\u3042\u308c\u3070\u3001\u305f\u3060\u5984\u4fe1\u7684\u306b\u7a0e\u91d1\u3067\u5f97\u3060\u304b\u3089\u3068\u6c7a\u3081\u8fbc\u3080\u306e\u3067\u306f\u306a\u304f\u3001\u81ea\u5206\u306e\u30b1\u30fc\u30b9\u3067\u7a0e\u63a7\u9664\u304c\u3069\u306e\u304f\u3089\u3044\u306e\u898f\u6a21\u306b\u306a\u308b\u306e\u304b\u3092\u3042\u3089\u304b\u3058\u3081\u3057\u3063\u304b\u308a\u628a\u63e1\u3057\u305f\u307b\u3046\u304c\u3044\u3044\u3067\u3057\u3087\u3046\u3002<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u5bb6\u306f\u672c\u5f53\u306b\u3088\u3044\u30a4\u30f3\u30d9\u30b9\u30c8\u30e1\u30f3\u30c8\u304b<\/h3>\n

1987\u5e74\u304b\u30892012\u5e74\u306e25\u5e74\u9593\u306e\u4e0d\u52d5\u7523\u4fa1\u683c\u306e\u4f38\u3073\u306f\u5e74\u73873.5%\u307b\u3069\u3067\u3059\u3002\u5e73\u5747\u7684\u30a4\u30f3\u30d5\u30ec\u7387\u306f3\uff5e4%\u3067\u3042\u308b\u3053\u3068\u3092\u8003\u3048\u308b\u3068\u3001\u3053\u306e25\u5e74\u9593\u3067\u306f\u4e0d\u52d5\u7523\u4fa1\u683c\u306f\u3084\u3063\u3068\u30a4\u30f3\u30d5\u30ec\u306b\u3064\u3044\u3066\u3044\u3063\u3066\u3044\u308b\u30ec\u30d9\u30eb\u3067\u3059\u3002Yale\u5927\u5b66\u306eRobert Shiller\u535a\u58eb\uff08\u5192\u982d\u3067\u7d39\u4ecb\u3057\u305fHome Price Index\u306e\u958b\u767a\u8005\uff09\u306b\u3088\u308b\u3068\u30011890\u5e74\u304b\u30891990\u5e74\u306e100\u5e74\u9593\u3092\u5206\u6790\u3057\u305f\u7d50\u679c\u3001\u5bb6\u306e\u5024\u6bb5\u306f\u30a4\u30f3\u30d5\u30ec\u30fc\u30b7\u30e7\u30f3\u7387\u3092\u4e0a\u56de\u308b\u6210\u9577\u306f\u898b\u305b\u306a\u304b\u3063\u305f\u3068\u7d50\u8ad6\u4ed8\u3051\u307e\u3057\u305f\u3002\u30a2\u30e1\u30ea\u30ab\u30f3\u30fb\u30c9\u30ea\u30fc\u30e0\u3068\u3057\u3066\u591a\u304f\u306e\u4eba\u304c\u76ee\u6307\u3059\u30db\u30fc\u30e0\u30fb\u30aa\u30fc\u30ca\u30fc\u30b7\u30c3\u30d7\u306f\u3001\u9577\u671f\u7684\u30a4\u30f3\u30d9\u30b9\u30c8\u30e1\u30f3\u30c8\u3068\u3044\u3046\u89b3\u70b9\u304b\u3089\u306f\u6c7a\u3057\u3066\u3059\u3050\u308c\u305f\u3082\u306e\u3067\u306f\u306a\u3044\u3068\u3057\u305f\u306e\u3067\u3059\u3002Shiller\u535a\u58eb\u306f\u3001\u300c\u5bb6\u3092\u6240\u6709\u3057\u30a8\u30af\u30a4\u30c6\u30a3\u3092\u8caf\u3081\u3066\u3044\u304f\u3053\u3068\u306f\u3001\u3059\u3070\u3089\u3057\u3044\u9577\u671f\u30a4\u30f3\u30d9\u30b9\u30c8\u30e1\u30f3\u30c8\u3067\u3042\u308b\u300d\u3068\u3059\u308b\u8003\u3048\u306f\u3001\u201dmassive popular delusion\uff08\u6839\u5f37\u3044\u5927\u8846\u7684\u5984\u60f3\uff09\u201c\u3067\u3042\u308b\u3068\u65ac\u308a\u3053\u307f\u307e\u3057\u305f\u3002<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\u300c\u5bb6\u3001\u8cb7\u3044\u6642\uff1f-\u30a2\u30e1\u30ea\u30ab\u4e0d\u52d5\u7523\u5e02\u5834\u3092\u8aad\u3080\uff08\uff11\uff09\u300d\u3054\u7d39\u4ecb\u3057\u305f\u300c\u30e2\u30fc\u30b2\u30fc\u30b8\u30fb\u30ed\u30fc\u30f3\u3067\u5b89\u304f\u501f\u308a\u3001\u305d\u306e\u5143\u624b\u3092\u6295\u8cc7\u3057\u3066\u304a\u91d1\u3092\u5897\u3084\u3059\uff63\u65b9\u6cd5\u3084\u3001\u300c\u8cc3\u8cb8\u7269\u4ef6\u3092\u8cfc\u5165\u3057\u3001\u30ec\u30f3\u30c8\u3067\u5e74\u3005\u306e\u5229\u56de\u308a\u3092\u7a3c\u3050\u300d\u65b9\u6cd5\u306f\u3001\u305d\u308c\u304c\u6709\u5229\u3067\u3042\u308a\u3048\u308b\u72b6\u6cc1\u306f\u5b58\u5728\u3059\u308b\u3067\u3057\u3087\u3046\u3002\u3057\u304b\u3057\u3001\u5e74\u3005\u306e\u5229\u56de\u308a\u3068\u540c\u69d8\u306b\u3001\u3042\u308b\u3044\u306f\u305d\u308c\u4ee5\u4e0a\u306b\u3001\u7269\u4ef6\u3092\u58f2\u308b\u6642\u70b9\u3067\u306e\u4e0d\u52d5\u7523\u4fa1\u5024\u306b\u3088\u3063\u3066\u3001\u6700\u7d42\u7684\u306a\u30a4\u30f3\u30d9\u30b9\u30c8\u30e1\u30f3\u30c8\u304c\u6210\u529f\u3067\u3042\u3063\u305f\u304b\u5931\u6557\u3067\u3042\u3063\u305f\u304b\u304c\u6c7a\u307e\u308b\u3053\u3068\u304c\u307b\u3068\u3093\u3069\u3067\u3059\u3002<\/strong><\/span>\u5e74\u3005\u306e\u5229\u56de\u308a\u304c\u305f\u3068\u304810\uff05\u3067\u3042\u3063\u305f\u3068\u3057\u3066\u3082\u3001\u6700\u7d42\u7684\u306b\u7269\u4ef6\u3092\u58f2\u308b\u6642\u70b9\u3067\u4e0d\u52d5\u7523\u4fa1\u5024\u306e\u4e0b\u843d\u304c\u6fc0\u3057\u304f20%\u3082\u640d\u3092\u3057\u305f\u3068\u306a\u308c\u3070\u3001\u59cb\u3081\u304b\u3089\u7d42\u308f\u308a\u307e\u3067\u901a\u7b97\u3057\u305f\u5834\u5408\u306e\u5229\u56de\u308a\u306f\u60b2\u60e8\u306a\u3082\u306e\u306b\u306a\u308a\u3048\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n

\u30ec\u30f3\u30bf\u30eb\u7269\u4ef6\u6295\u8cc7\u306f\u3001\u6700\u8fd1\u6ce8\u76ee\u3092\u96c6\u3081\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002rent yield\uff08\u30ec\u30f3\u30c8\u5229\u56de\u308a\uff1d\u4e00\u5e74\u306b\u5165\u3063\u3066\u304f\u308b\u30ec\u30f3\u30c8\u53ce\u5165\u00f7\u8cfc\u5165\u4fa1\u683c\uff09\u304c\u4e0a\u6607\u4e2d\u3068\u3044\u3046\u3053\u3068\u3067\u3059\u304c\u3001\u3053\u306e\u6570\u5b57\u3092\u898b\u308b\u306b\u306f\u5c11\u3057\u6ce8\u610f\u304c\u5fc5\u8981\u3067\u3059\u3002\u73fe\u5728\u306f\u3001\u30d5\u30a9\u30fc\u30af\u30ed\u30fc\u30ba\u3055\u308c\u3066\u5bb6\u3092\u624b\u653e\u3055\u306a\u3051\u308c\u3070\u306a\u3089\u306a\u3044\u4eba\u3084\u3001\u5bb6\u306e\u5024\u6bb5\u304c\u5e95\u3092\u3064\u304f\u307e\u3067\u30ec\u30f3\u30c8\u3057\u3066\u5f85\u3063\u3066\u3044\u308b\u4eba\u306a\u3069\u3001\u30ec\u30f3\u30bf\u30eb\u4eba\u53e3\u304c\u5897\u3048\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002\u305d\u308c\u306b\u3088\u308a\u30ec\u30f3\u30c8\u306f\u4e0a\u6607\u50be\u5411\u306b\u3042\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002\u3064\u307e\u308arent yield\u3092\u6c7a\u3081\u308b\u5206\u5b50\u306e\u307b\u3046\u304c\u5927\u304d\u304f\u306a\u3063\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3068\u3044\u3046\u3053\u3068\u3067\u3001\u5f53\u7136rent yield\u3082\u5f15\u304d\u4e0a\u3052\u3089\u308c\u3066\u3044\u308b\u308f\u3051\u3067\u3059\u304c\u3001\u30ec\u30f3\u30bf\u30eb\u7269\u4ef6\u8cfc\u5165\u306b\u3042\u305f\u3063\u3066\u306f\u3001\u3053\u308c\u304c\u4e00\u904e\u6027\u306e\u3082\u306e\u3067\u306f\u306a\u3044\u3053\u3068\u3092\u898b\u6975\u3081\u306d\u3070\u306a\u308a\u307e\u305b\u3093\u3002<\/strong><\/span>\u5bb6\u306e\u4fa1\u683c\u304c\u5341\u5206\u4e0b\u304c\u3063\u3066\u3001\u30ec\u30f3\u30c8\u4eba\u53e3\u304c\u5c11\u3057\u305a\u3064\u30db\u30fc\u30e0\u30fb\u30aa\u30fc\u30ca\u30b7\u30c3\u30d7\u306b\u6d41\u308c\u305f\u3068\u304d\u3001yield\u304c\u4f4e\u4e0b\u3057\u3066\u3044\u304f\u3053\u3068\u306f\u5341\u5206\u4e88\u60f3\u3067\u304d\u307e\u3059\u3002\u4eca\u306f\u3044\u3044\u3051\u3069\u3001\uff12\uff0c\uff13\u5e74\u5f8c\u3001\u30ec\u30f3\u30bf\u30eb\u53ce\u5165\u304c\u6fc0\u6e1b\u3057\u3066\u3057\u307e\u3063\u305f\u3068\u3044\u3046\u3053\u3068\u306e\u306a\u3044\u3088\u3046\u306b\u3001\u5341\u5206\u306a\u541f\u5473\u306b\u3088\u308b\u7269\u4ef6\u6295\u8cc7\u304c\u5fc5\u8981\u3067\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4e0d\u52d5\u7523\u6295\u8cc7\u306b\u306f\u307e\u3068\u307e\u3063\u305f\u8cc7\u91d1\u304c\u5fc5\u8981\u3067\u3059\u3002\u5bb6\u8a08\u3067\u306e\u4e00\u756a\u5927\u304d\u306a\u8cc7\u7523\u304c\u6301\u3061\u5bb6\u3067\u3042\u308b\u3068\u3044\u3046\u3053\u3068\u3082\u591a\u3044\u3067\u3057\u3087\u3046\u3002\u6295\u8cc7\u3068\u3044\u3046\u9762\u304b\u3089\u307f\u308b\u3068\u3001\u3042\u308b\u3072\u3068\u3064\u306e\u6295\u8cc7\u5a92\u4f53\u306b\u591a\u984d\u306e\u6295\u8cc7\u3092\u96c6\u4e2d\u3055\u305b\u308b\u308f\u3051\u3067\u3001\u3053\u308c\u306f\u30a2\u30bb\u30c3\u30c8\u30fb\u30a2\u30ed\u30b1\u30fc\u30b7\u30e7\u30f3<\/span><\/a>\uff08\u6295\u8cc7\u8cc7\u7523\u3092\u3044\u308d\u3044\u308d\u306a\u30bf\u30a4\u30d7\u306e\u8cc7\u7523\u306b\u5206\u6563\u3055\u305b\u308b\u3053\u3068\uff09\u306e\u89b3\u70b9\u304b\u3089\u3059\u308b\u3068\u6c7a\u3057\u3066\u8912\u3081\u3089\u308c\u308b\u3082\u306e\u3067\u306f\u3042\u308a\u307e\u305b\u3093\u3002<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\u3057\u304b\u3082\u3001\u5192\u982d\u3067\u3054\u7d39\u4ecb\u3057\u305fHome Price Index\u306e\u30b0\u30e9\u30d5\u306b\u3042\u308b\u3088\u3046\u306b\u3001\u4e0d\u52d5\u7523\u306e\u5024\u52d5\u304d\u306f\u682a\u3068\u540c\u69d8\u6fc0\u3057\u3044\u3082\u306e\u3067\u3059\u3002\u3053\u306e\u3088\u3046\u306a\u5371\u967a\u5ea6\u306e\u9ad8\u3044\u6295\u8cc7\u5a92\u4f53\u306b\u5927\u304d\u306a\u8cc7\u91d1\u3092\u96c6\u4e2d\u6295\u8cc7\u3059\u308b\u306e\u306f\u3001\u6301\u3061\u5bb6\u3068\u3057\u3066\u300c\u4f4f\u3080\u305f\u3081\u300d\u306a\u3089\u3070\u6b63\u5f53\u5316\u3067\u304d\u308b\u304b\u3082\u3057\u308c\u307e\u305b\u3093\u304c\u3001\u300c\u30a4\u30f3\u30d9\u30b9\u30c8\u30e1\u30f3\u30c8\u300d\u3068\u3057\u3066\u6b63\u5f53\u5316\u3067\u304d\u308b\u3082\u306e\u304b\u3068\u8003\u3048\u308b\u3068\u7591\u554f\u304c\u6b8b\u308b\u3067\u3057\u3087\u3046\u3002<\/p>\n

\u300c\u5e73\u8861\u70b9\u300d\u307e\u3067\u4e0b\u304c\u3063\u3066\u3044\u306a\u3044\u5bb6\u306e\u5024\u6bb5<\/p>\n

\uff0b\u307e\u3060\u307e\u3060\u4e0b\u304c\u308a\u305d\u3046\u306a\u5bb6\u306e\u5024\u6bb5<\/p>\n

\uff0b\u5f53\u9762\u306e\u4f4e\u91d1\u5229\u30fb\u4e0a\u304c\u3063\u305f\u3089\u4e0a\u304c\u3063\u305f\u3067OK\u306e\u91d1\u5229<\/p>\n

\uff0b\u306a\u304b\u306a\u304b\u8caf\u307e\u3089\u306a\u3044\u30a8\u30af\u30a4\u30c6\u30a3<\/p>\n

\uff0b\u601d\u3063\u305f\u307b\u3069\u5927\u304d\u304f\u306a\u3044\u7a0e\u63a7\u9664<\/p>\n

\uff0b\u7591\u554f\u306e\u6b8b\u308b\u30a4\u30f3\u30d9\u30b9\u30c8\u30e1\u30f3\u30c8\u30fb\u30fb\u30fb<\/p>\n

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