{"id":4462,"date":"2018-09-25T09:17:49","date_gmt":"2018-09-25T17:17:49","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/smartandresponsible.com\/blog\/?p=4462"},"modified":"2026-05-05T15:50:58","modified_gmt":"2026-05-05T23:50:58","slug":"fund_mt","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/smartandresponsible.com\/blog\/fund_mt\/","title":{"rendered":"\u5f15\u304d\u51fa\u3057\u6642\u306e\u30de\u30fc\u30b1\u30c3\u30c8\u30bf\u30a4\u30df\u30f3\u30b0 \u30fc \u3069\u306e\u30d5\u30a1\u30f3\u30c9\u304b\u3089\u63db\u91d1\u3059\u308b\u304b"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\u300c\u30ea\u30bf\u30a4\u30e4\u30e1\u30f3\u30c8\u8cc7\u91d1\u3092\u6e96\u5099\u3059\u308b\u305f\u3081\u306b\u3001\u3069\u3046\u6295\u8cc7\u30dd\u30fc\u30c8\u30d5\u30a9\u30ea\u30aa\u3092\u904b\u7528\u3059\u308b\u304b\u300d\u3068\u3044\u3046\u30c8\u30d4\u30c3\u30af\u306b\u3064\u3044\u3066\u306f\u3001\u3059\u3067\u306b\u591a\u304f\u306e\u8b70\u8ad6\u3084\u30ea\u30b5\u30fc\u30c1\u304c\u306a\u3055\u308c\u3066\u304d\u307e\u3057\u305f\u3002\u5b9f\u306f\u8caf\u3081\u3066\u3044\u308b\u6bb5\u968e\u3067\u6ce8\u610f\u3057\u306a\u3051\u308c\u3070\u306a\u3089\u306a\u3044\u3053\u3068\u306f\u6bd4\u8f03\u7684\u30b7\u30f3\u30d7\u30eb\u3067\u3001\u57fa\u672c\u3092\u62bc\u3055\u3048\u308c\u3066\u30dd\u30fc\u30c8\u30d5\u30a9\u30ea\u30aa\u3068\u30a2\u30ed\u30b1\u30fc\u30b7\u30e7\u30f3\u8abf\u6574\u306e\u67a0\u7d44\u307f\u3092\u7d44\u3081\u3070\u3001\u3042\u3068\u306f\u305f\u3060\u304a\u91d1\u3092\u5165\u308c\u7d9a\u3051\u308b\u3060\u3051\u3067\u5927\u4e08\u592b\u3068\u3044\u3063\u3066\u3082\u904e\u8a00\u3067\u306f\u3042\u308a\u307e\u305b\u3093\u3002\u4e00\u65b9\u3067\u3001\u30d9\u30d3\u30fc\u30d6\u30fc\u30de\u30fc\u304c\u30ea\u30bf\u30a4\u30e4\u30e1\u30f3\u30c8\u306b\u5165\u308a\u59cb\u3081\u305f\u3053\u308d\u304b\u3089\u3001\u300c\u30ea\u30bf\u30a4\u30e4\u30e1\u30f3\u30c8\u8cc7\u91d1\u3092\u3069\u3046\u6226\u7565\u7684\u306b\u5f15\u304d\u51fa\u3059\u304b\u300d\u3068\u3044\u3046\u30c8\u30d4\u30c3\u30af\u3082\u51fa\u59cb\u3081\u308b\u3088\u3046\u306b\u306a\u308a\u307e\u3057\u305f\u304c\u3001\u3053\u306e\u30c6\u30fc\u30de\u306b\u3064\u3044\u3066\u306f\u307e\u3060\u591a\u304f\u306e\u7814\u7a76\u3068\u8b70\u8ad6\u304c\u5fc5\u8981\u306a\u6bb5\u968e\u3068\u3044\u3048\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u30a4\u30f3\u30c7\u30c3\u30af\u30b9\u6295\u8cc7\u3067\u306f\u300c\u4f55\u3082\u3057\u306a\u3044\u300d\u3068\u304b\u300c\u307b\u3063\u305f\u3089\u304b\u3057\u300d\u3068\u3044\u3046\u8a00\u8449\u304c\u3088\u304f\u5504\u308f\u308c\u307e\u3059\u304c\u3001\u5b9f\u969b\u3001\u8caf\u3081\u3066\u3044\u308b\u6bb5\u968e\u3067\u306f\u3084\u3089\u306d\u3070\u306a\u3089\u306a\u3044\u3053\u3068\u306f\u975e\u5e38\u306b\u30b7\u30f3\u30d7\u30eb\u3067\u3059\u3002\u30d5\u30a1\u30a4\u30ca\u30f3\u30b7\u30e3\u30eb\u30d7\u30e9\u30ca\u30fc\u306e\u79c1\u304c\u8a00\u3046\u306e\u3082\u306a\u3093\u3067\u3059\u304c\u3001\u57fa\u672c\u3055\u3048\u62bc\u3055\u3048\u308c\u3070\u30d5\u30a1\u30a4\u30ca\u30f3\u30b7\u30e3\u30eb\u30d7\u30e9\u30ca\u30fc\u306a\u3069\u4f7f\u308f\u306a\u304f\u3066\u3082\u3001\u8cc7\u91d1\u6e96\u5099\u304c\u53ef\u80fd\u3067\u3059\u3002\u3084\u3089\u306d\u3070\u306a\u3089\u306a\u3044\u3053\u3068\u3092\u7c21\u5358\u306b\u307e\u3068\u3081\u307e\u3059\u3068\uff1a<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\u7a4d\u307f\u7acb\u3066\u306f\u306a\u308b\u3079\u304f\u65e9\u304f\u306f\u3058\u3081\u308b<\/li>\n<li>\u6708\u3005\u3001\u5e74\u3005\u3067\u304d\u308b\u304b\u304e\u308a\u306e\u7a4d\u307f\u7acb\u3066\u3092\u3059\u308b<\/li>\n<li>\u3067\u304d\u308b\u3060\u3051\u9577\u304f\u50cd\u304d\u9577\u304f\u8caf\u3081\u308b<\/li>\n<li>\u5e74\u9f62\u306b\u5fdc\u3058\u9069\u5207\u306a\u30ea\u30b9\u30af\u3092\u3068\u308b\u30a2\u30bb\u30c3\u30c8\u30fb\u30a2\u30ed\u30b1\u30fc\u30b7\u30e7\u30f3\u3092\u5b9f\u73fe\u3057\u3001\u9577\u671f\u7684\u306b\u7dad\u6301\u3059\u308b<\/li>\n<li>\u5e02\u5834\u304c\u3044\u3044\u3068\u304d\u3082\u60aa\u3044\u3068\u304d\u3082\u30b3\u30f3\u30b9\u30bf\u30f3\u30c8\u306b\u8caf\u3081\u7d9a\u3051\u3001\u6a5f\u3092\u898b\u3066\u58f2\u3063\u305f\u308a\u8cb7\u3063\u305f\u308a\u3057\u306a\u3044<\/li>\n<li>\u6295\u8cc7\u306e\u624b\u6570\u6599\u3092\u306a\u308b\u3079\u304f\u907f\u3051\u308b\u30fb\u4f4e\u304f\u4fdd\u3064<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u6700\u521d\u306b\u81ea\u5206\u304c\u6295\u8cc7\u3059\u3079\u304d\u4f4e\u624b\u6570\u6599\u30d5\u30a1\u30f3\u30c9\u3092\u9078\u3073\u3001\u5b9a\u671f\u7684\u306b\u7a4d\u307f\u7acb\u3066\u308b\u624b\u7d9a\u304d\u3092\u3057\u305f\u3089\u3001\u3042\u3068\u306fpretty much\u300c\u307b\u3063\u305f\u3089\u304b\u3057\u300d\u3067\u672c\u5f53\u306b\u5927\u4e08\u592b\u3067\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u3068\u3053\u308d\u304c\u53cd\u5bfe\u306b\u5f15\u304d\u51fa\u3057\u3066\u4f7f\u3046\u30d5\u30a7\u30fc\u30ba\u306f\u3001\u4eca\u307e\u3067\u306e\u30dd\u30fc\u30c8\u30d5\u30a9\u30ea\u30aa\u304c\u5897\u3048\u308b\u3068\u3044\u3046\u30d7\u30e9\u30b9\u65b9\u5411\u304b\u3089\u6e1b\u308b\u3068\u3044\u3046\u30de\u30a4\u30ca\u30b9\u65b9\u5411\u306b\u4f5c\u7528\u304c180\u5ea6\u5909\u308f\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002\u6708\u3005\u306e\u751f\u6d3b\u8cbb\u3092\u78ba\u4fdd\u3059\u308b\u3068\u3044\u3046\u76ee\u7684\u3068\u3001\u5143\u672c\u3092\u306a\u308b\u3079\u304f\u6e1b\u3089\u3055\u306a\u3044\u3067\u8cc7\u91d1\u3092\u9577\u6301\u3061\u3055\u305b\u308b\u3068\u3044\u3046\u3075\u305f\u3064\u306e\u76ee\u7684\u3092\u3001\u30d0\u30e9\u30f3\u30b9\u3092\u3068\u308a\u3064\u3064\u5e02\u5834\u306e\u72b6\u614b\u3082\u304b\u3093\u304c\u307f\u306a\u304c\u3089\u5b9f\u884c\u3057\u3066\u3044\u304b\u306d\u3070\u306a\u308a\u307e\u305b\u3093\u3002\u5e02\u5834\u304c\u3069\u3046\u306a\u308b\u304b\u3068\u81ea\u5206\u306e\u5065\u5eb7\u72b6\u614b\u3084\u5bff\u547d\u3068\u3044\u3046\u300c\u6c7a\u5b9a\u7684\u306a\u300d\u60c5\u5831\u306f\u8ab0\u306b\u3082\u306f\u3063\u304d\u308a\u3068\u308f\u304b\u308a\u307e\u305b\u3093\u304b\u3089\u3001\u81f3\u96e3\u306e\u308f\u3056\u3067\u3059\u3002\u3053\u308c\u306f\u5e74\u5b63\u306e\u306f\u3044\u3063\u305f\u30d5\u30a1\u30a4\u30ca\u30f3\u30b7\u30e3\u30eb\u30d7\u30e9\u30ca\u30fc\u306b\u3068\u3063\u3066\u3082\u96e3\u3057\u3044\u4ed5\u4e8b\u3060\u3068\u601d\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong><a href=\"http:\/\/smartandresponsible.com\/blog\/post-retirement-management\/\" >\u30ea\u30bf\u30a4\u30e4\u30e1\u30f3\u30c8\u8cc7\u91d1-\u300c\u8caf\u3081\u308b\u300d\u3088\u308a\u300c\u4f7f\u3046\u300d\u30d5\u30a7\u30fc\u30ba\u304c\u96e3\u3057\u3044<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u3072\u3068\u3064\u306e\u6c7a\u5b9a\u7684\u306b\u91cd\u8981\u306a\u898b\u6975\u3081\u306f\u3001\u5177\u4f53\u7684\u306b\u3069\u306e\u30d5\u30a1\u30f3\u30c9\u3092\u3044\u3064\u58f2\u308b\u304b\u306e\u6c7a\u65ad\u3067\u3059\u3002\uff08\u6b63\u78ba\u306b\u3044\u3048\u3070\u3001\u3069\u306e\u53e3\u5ea7\u306e\u4e2d\u306b\u6301\u3063\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3069\u306e\u30d5\u30a1\u30f3\u30c9\u3092\u58f2\u308b\u304b\u30fb\u30fb\u306b\u306a\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002\u3069\u306e\u53e3\u5ea7\u304b\u3089\u5f15\u304d\u51fa\u3059\u304b\u306b\u3064\u3044\u3066\u306f\u3001\u3053\u3061\u3089\u306e\u8a18\u4e8b<a href=\"http:\/\/smartandresponsible.com\/blog\/unify_accounts\/\" ><strong>\u30ea\u30bf\u30a4\u30e4\u30e1\u30f3\u30c8\u53e3\u5ea7\u306e\u6570\u304c\u305f\u304f\u3055\u3093\u3042\u308b\uff01\u3000\uff0d\u3000\u3069\u306e\u53e3\u5ea7\u304b\u3089\u5f15\u304d\u51fa\u3059<\/strong>\u304b<\/a>\u3092\u3054\u89a7\u3063\u304f\u3060\u3055\u3044\u3002\uff09<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h2>\u3044\u3064\u4f55\u3092\u58f2\u308b\u304b\u30fb\u30fb\u3092\u898b\u6975\u3081\u308b<\/h2>\n<p>\u4ee5\u524d\u306e\u8a18\u4e8b\u3067\u3001\u6708\u3005\u30b3\u30f3\u30b9\u30bf\u30f3\u30c8\u306a\u984d\u3092\u5f15\u304d\u51fa\u3057\u3066\u3044\u304f\u65b9\u6cd5\u306f\u3001\u300c\u5b89\u3044\u6642\u306b\u305f\u304f\u3055\u3093\u58f2\u3063\u3066\u3001\u9ad8\u3044\u6642\u306b\u5c11\u3057\u58f2\u308b\u300d\u3068\u3044\u3046\u52b9\u679c\u3092\u751f\u307f\u51fa\u3057\u3066\u3057\u307e\u3044\u3001\u30ea\u30bf\u30a4\u30e4\u30e1\u30f3\u30c8\u8cc7\u91d1\u3092\u6642\u671f\u5c1a\u65e9\u306b\u67af\u6e07\u3055\u305b\u308b\u5371\u967a\u6027\u3092\u9ad8\u3081\u308b\u3053\u3068\u306b\u3064\u3044\u3066\u898b\u307e\u3057\u305f(<strong><a href=\"http:\/\/smartandresponsible.com\/blog\/market_timing_withdrawal\/\" >\u8caf\u3081\u308b\u3068\u304d\u306e\u30bf\u30d6\u30fc\u306f\u5f15\u304d\u51fa\u3059\u3068\u304d\u306e\u5fc5\u9808\u4e8b\u9805<\/a><\/strong>).<\/p>\n<p>\u5e02\u5834\u306e\u72b6\u614b\u3092\u898b\u306a\u304c\u3089\u3001\u3044\u3064\u6295\u8cc7\u3059\u308b\u304b\u3092\u56f3\u308b\u59ff\u52e2\u306f\u30de\u30fc\u30b1\u30c3\u30c8\u30bf\u30a4\u30df\u30f3\u30b0\u3068\u547c\u3070\u308c\u3001\u7a4d\u307f\u7acb\u3066\u30d5\u30a7\u30fc\u30ba\u3067\u306f\u3067\u304d\u308b\u9650\u308a\u907f\u3051\u308b\u306e\u304c\u597d\u307e\u3057\u3044\u3067\u3059\u304c\u3001\u30ea\u30bf\u30a4\u30e4\u30e1\u30f3\u30c8\u5f8c\u306e\u5f15\u304d\u51fa\u3057\u30d5\u30a7\u30fc\u30ba\u3067\u306f\u3001\u3044\u3064\u58f2\u308b\u304b\u306b\u3064\u3044\u3066\u6a5f\u3092\u898b\u308b\u3053\u3068\uff08\u30de\u30fc\u30b1\u30c3\u30c8\u30bf\u30a4\u30df\u30f3\u30b0\uff09\u306f\u5fc5\u8981\u4e0d\u53ef\u6b20\u3067\u3042\u308b\u3068\u3044\u3046\u3053\u3068\u306b\u3064\u3044\u3066\u3082\u5b66\u3073\u307e\u3057\u305f\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u3067\u306f\u3001\u6a5f\u3092\u898b\u308b\u3068\u3044\u3063\u3066\u3082\u3001\u305d\u308c\u3092\u5177\u4f53\u7684\u306b\u3069\u306e\u3088\u3046\u306b\u3057\u3066\u3044\u3051\u3070\u3088\u3044\u3067\u3057\u3087\u3046\u3002\u300c\u4eca\u306f\u58f2\u308a\u6642\u300d\u3068\u3044\u3046\u8a8d\u8b58\u3092\u3069\u306e\u3088\u3046\u306b\u3059\u308c\u3070\u3044\u3044\u306e\u3067\u3057\u3087\u3046\u304b\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u3053\u306e\u6a5f\u3092\u3069\u3046\u898b\u308b\u304b\u30fb\u30fb\u306b\u3064\u3044\u3066\u3001<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"http:\/\/time.com\/money\/4166109\/best-retirement-withdrawal-strategies\/\" >\u904e\u53bb\u306e\u5e02\u5834\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u3092\u4f7f\u3044\u30b7\u30e5\u30df\u30ec\u30fc\u30b7\u30e7\u30f3\u3092\u3057\u305f\u30ec\u30dd\u30fc\u30c8<\/a>\u304c\u3042\u308a\u307e\u3059\u300250\uff05\u682a\u5f0f\u30d5\u30a1\u30f3\u30c9(S&amp;P500)\uff1a50\uff05\u50b5\u5238\u30d5\u30a1\u30f3\u30c9\uff0810Year\u56fd\u50b5\uff09\u3067\u6295\u8cc7\u3055\u308c\u305f\u7dcf\u984d\uff04\uff11\u30df\u30ea\u30aa\u30f3\u306e\u30ea\u30bf\u30a4\u30e4\u30e1\u30f3\u30c8\u8cc7\u91d1\u304b\u3089\u5e74$40,000\u305a\u3064\u3092\u5f15\u304d\u51fa\u3059\u5834\u5408\u3092\u60f3\u5b9a\u3057\u300130\u5e74\u306e\u30ea\u30bf\u30a4\u30e4\u30e1\u30f3\u30c8\u671f\u9593\u306e\u6700\u5f8c\u306b\u8cc7\u91d1\u6b8b\u9ad8\u304c\u3069\u3046\u306a\u308b\u304b\u3092\u6bd4\u8f03\u3057\u305f\u30ea\u30b5\u30fc\u30c1\u3067\u3059\u3002\uff16\u3064\u306e\u65b9\u6cd5\u3092\u6bd4\u8f03\u3057\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u304c\u3001\u4e00\u3064\u76ee\u306e\u65b9\u6cd5\u306f\u3001\u30d9\u30fc\u30b9\u30e9\u30a4\u30f3\u3068\u3082\u306a\u308b\u300c\u6a5f\u3092\u898b\u306a\u3044\u300d\u65b9\u6cd5\u3067\u3059\u3002\u3042\u3068\u306e\uff15\u3064\u306f\u306a\u3093\u3089\u304b\u306e\u6307\u6a19\u3067\u6a5f\u3092\u898b\u3066\u3001\u3088\u308a\u72b6\u614b\u306e\u3088\u3044\u30d5\u30a1\u30f3\u30c9\u304b\u3089\u512a\u5148\u7684\u306b\u58f2\u308b\u3053\u3068\u3092\u5b9f\u73fe\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u306a\u304a\u3001\u3053\u308c\u3089\u3069\u306e\u65b9\u6cd5\u3067\u3082\u3001\u5e74\u3005$40,000\u3092\u5f15\u304d\u51fa\u3059\u4ee5\u5916\u306b\u306f\u3001\u30ea\u30d0\u30e9\u30f3\u30b9\u3092\u76ee\u7684\u3068\u3057\u305f\u58f2\u308a\u8cb7\u3044\u306f\u4e00\u5207\u884c\u308f\u306a\u3044\u3053\u3068\u3092\u524d\u63d0\u306b\u3057\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002\u3075\u305f\u3064\u3081\u306e\u30ea\u30d0\u30e9\u30f3\u30b9\u65b9\u5f0f\u306f\u3001\u5e38\u306b50\uff05\u682a\u5f0f\u30d5\u30a1\u30f3\u30c9\uff1a50\uff05\u50b5\u5238\u30d5\u30a1\u30f3\u30c9\u306e\u6bd4\u7387\u3092\u4fdd\u3061\u307e\u3059\u304c\u3001\u4ed6\u306e\u65b9\u6cd5\u306f\u5f15\u304d\u51fa\u3057\u306b\u3088\u308a\u30a2\u30ed\u30b1\u30fc\u30b7\u30e7\u30f3\u304c50\uff05\uff1a50\uff05\u304b\u3089\u305a\u308c\u305f\u3068\u3057\u3066\u3082\u3001\u30ea\u30d0\u30e9\u30f3\u30b9\u306f\u884c\u308f\u305a\u3001\u305d\u306e\u307e\u307e\u904b\u7528\u3092\u7d9a\u3051\u3066\u304d\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h2>\uff16\u3064\u306e\u65b9\u6cd5<\/h2>\n<p><strong>\u6a5f\u3092\u898b\u306a\u3044\u65b9\u6cd5\uff08<\/strong><strong>Equal Withdrawal\uff09<\/strong>\uff1a\u3000$40,000\u306e\u5f15\u304d\u51fa\u3057\u984d\u306e50\uff05\u3092\u682a\u5f0f\u30d5\u30a1\u30f3\u30c9\u304b\u3089\u3001\u6b8b\u308a\u306e50\uff05\u3092\u50b5\u5238\u30d5\u30a1\u30f3\u30c9\u304b\u3089\u3068\u3044\u3046\u3088\u3046\u306b\u3001\u6bce\u56de\u5b9a\u984d\u3092\u5b9a\u6bd4\u7387\u3067\u5f15\u304d\u51fa\u3057\u7d9a\u3051\u308b\u65b9\u6cd5\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\uff08\u4ee5\u4e0b\u306f\u6a5f\u3092\u898b\u308b\u65b9\u6cd5\uff09<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u30ea\u30d0\u30e9\u30f3\u30b9\u65b9\u5f0f\uff08<\/strong><strong>Rebalancing\uff09<\/strong>\uff1a\u3000\u5f15\u304d\u51fa\u3059\u3053\u3068\u306b\u3088\u3063\u3066\u3001\u3064\u306d\u306b50\uff05\u682a\u5f0f\u30d5\u30a1\u30f3\u30c9\uff1a50\uff05\u50b5\u5238\u30d5\u30a1\u30f3\u30c9\u306e\u30a2\u30ed\u30b1\u30fc\u30b7\u30e7\u30f3\u3092\u5b9f\u73fe\u3059\u308b\u65b9\u6cd5\u3002\u7d50\u679c\u7684\u306b\u3001\u305d\u306e\u6642\u6210\u7e3e\u306e\u826f\u3044\u30d5\u30a1\u30f3\u30c9\u304b\u3089\u512a\u5148\u7684\u306b\u5f15\u304d\u51fa\u3057\u3092\u884c\u3046\u3053\u3068\u306b\u306a\u308b\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u53bb\u5e74\u306e\u682a\u5f0f\u6210\u7e3e\uff08<\/strong><strong>Last Performance\uff09<\/strong>\uff1a\u3000\u53bb\u5e74\u306e\u682a\u5f0f\u5229\u56de\u308a\u304c\u53bb\u5e74\u306e\u50b5\u5238\u306e\u5229\u56de\u308a\u3088\u308a\u5927\u304d\u3051\u308c\u3070\u682a\u5f0f\u30d5\u30a1\u30f3\u30c9\u304b\u3089\u5f15\u304d\u51fa\u3059\u3002\u305d\u308c\u4ee5\u5916\u306f\u50b5\u5238\u30d5\u30a1\u30f3\u30c9\u304b\u3089\u5f15\u304d\u51fa\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>3\u5e74\u5909\u52d5\u5e73\u5747\uff083\u3000Year Moving Average\uff09<\/strong>\uff1a\u3000\u904e\u53bb3\u5e74\u306e\u682a\u5f0f\u5229\u56de\u308a\u304c\u904e\u53bb3\u5e74\u306e\u50b5\u5238\u5229\u56de\u308a\u3088\u308a\u5927\u304d\u3051\u308c\u3070\u682a\u5f0f\u30d5\u30a1\u30f3\u30c9\u304b\u3089\u5f15\u304d\u51fa\u3057\u3001\u305d\u308c\u4ee5\u5916\u306f\u50b5\u5238\u30d5\u30a1\u30f3\u30c9\u304b\u3089\u5f15\u304d\u51fa\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>7\u5e74\u5909\u52d5\u5e73\u5747\uff08\uff17\u3000Year Moving Average\uff09<\/strong>\uff1a\u3000\u904e\u53bb\uff17\u5e74\u306e\u682a\u5f0f\u5229\u56de\u308a\u304c\u904e\u53bb\uff17\u5e74\u306e\u50b5\u5238\u5229\u56de\u308a\u3088\u308a\u5927\u304d\u3051\u308c\u3070\u682a\u5f0f\u30d5\u30a1\u30f3\u30c9\u304b\u3089\u5f15\u304d\u51fa\u3057\u3001\u305d\u308c\u4ee5\u5916\u306f\u50b5\u5238\u30d5\u30a1\u30f3\u30c9\u304b\u3089\u5f15\u304d\u51fa\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>CAPE<\/strong>\uff1a\uff23\uff59\uff43\uff4c\uff49\uff43\uff41\uff4c\uff4c\uff59\u3000\uff21\uff44\uff4a\uff55\uff53\uff54\uff45\uff44\u3000\uff30\uff52\uff49\uff43\uff45\uff0d\uff25\uff41\uff52\uff4e\uff49\uff4e\uff47\uff53\u3000\uff32\uff41\uff54\uff49\uff4f\uff08\uff23\uff21\uff30\uff25\uff1d\u73fe\u5728\u306eS&amp;P500\u00f7\u904e\u53bb10\u5e74\u306e\u5229\u56de\u308a\uff09\u304c\u904e\u53bb\u306eCAPE\u306e\u9577\u671f\u9593\u5e73\u5747\u5024\u3088\u308a\u5927\u304d\u3051\u308c\u3070\u682a\u5f0f\u30d5\u30a1\u30f3\u30c9\u304b\u3089\u5f15\u304d\u51fa\u3057\u3001\u305d\u308c\u4ee5\u5916\u306f\u50b5\u5238\u30d5\u30a1\u30f3\u30c9\u304b\u3089\u5f15\u304d\u51fa\u3057\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u3053\u306e\uff16\u3064\u306e\u6307\u6a19\u3092\u3064\u304b\u3044\u30011928\u5e74\u3092\u59cb\u3081\u5e74\u3068\u3057\u305d\u308c\u305e\u308c30\u5e74\u9593\u306e\u30ea\u30bf\u30a4\u30e4\u30e1\u30f3\u30c8\u5f15\u304d\u51fa\u3057\u671f\u9593\u3092\u8003\u3048\u3001\u6700\u7d42\u306f1986\u5e74\u306b\u30ea\u30bf\u30a4\u30e4\u3057\u306630\u5e74\u9593\u307e\u3067\u306e\u3001\u516858\u30b1\u30fc\u30b9\u306b\u3064\u304d\u3001\u904e\u53bb\u306e\u5b9f\u969b\u306e\u682a\u5f0f\u30fb\u50b5\u5238\u5229\u56de\u308a\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u3092\u4f7f\u3063\u3066\u30b7\u30e5\u30df\u30ec\u30fc\u30b7\u30e7\u30f3\u3092\u884c\u3044\u307e\u3057\u305f\u3002\u7d50\u679c\u3092\u898b\u308b\u305f\u3081\u306e\u30dd\u30a4\u30f3\u30c8\u306f\u4e8c\u3064\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4e00\u3064\u76ee\u306f\u3001<strong>\u6295\u8cc7\u30dd\u30fc\u30c8\u30d5\u30a9\u30ea\u30aa\u304c\u67af\u6e07\u3057\u305f\u304b\u3057\u306a\u304b\u3063\u305f\u304b<\/strong>\u3002\u67af\u6e07\u3057\u306a\u3044\u306730\u5e74\u9593\u7dad\u6301\u3067\u304d\u305f\u5834\u5408\u306e<strong>\u6210\u529f\u7387\uff08<\/strong><strong>Success Rate\uff09<\/strong>\u3067\u3059\u3002\u305f\u3068\u3048\u3070\u6210\u529f\u7387\u304c80\uff05\u3067\u3042\u308c\u3070\u300180\uff05\u306e\u30b7\u30e5\u30df\u30ec\u30fc\u30b7\u30e7\u30f3\u3067\u306f\u8cc7\u91d1\u306f\u67af\u6e07\u3057\u306a\u304b\u3063\u305f\u304c\u3001\u6b8b\u308a\u306e\uff12\uff10\uff05\u3067\u306f\u6642\u671f\u5c1a\u65e9\u306b\u8cc7\u91d1\u304c\u67af\u6e07\u3057\u3066\u3057\u307e\u3063\u305f\u3053\u3068\u3092\u610f\u5473\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4e8c\u3064\u76ee\u306f\u3001\u8cc7\u91d1\u304c\u67af\u6e07\u305b\u305a\u7dad\u6301\u3067\u304d\u305f\u5834\u5408\u306e\u3001<strong>\uff13\uff10\u5e74\u5f8c\u306b\u6b8b\u3063\u305f\u6b8b\u9ad8<\/strong>\u3067\u3059\u3002\u5f15\u304d\u51fa\u3057\u3092\u884c\u3044\u306a\u304c\u3089\u3082\u3001\u30dd\u30fc\u30c8\u30d5\u30a9\u30ea\u30aa\u306e\u4e2d\u306e\u304a\u91d1\u306f\u682a\u5f0f\u30d5\u30a1\u30f3\u30c9\u3068\u50b5\u6a29\u30d5\u30a1\u30f3\u30c9\u3067\u6295\u8cc7\u3055\u308c\u7d9a\u3051\u307e\u3059\u304c\u3001\u305d\u306e\u5834\u5408\u306e<strong>\u6700\u7d42\u6b8b\u9ad8\u306e\u4e2d\u592e\u5024\uff08\u30e1\u30b8\u30a2\u30f3\uff1d<\/strong><strong>Median Ending Portfolio Value\uff09<\/strong>\u3067\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h2>\u7d50\u679c\u306f\u30fb\u30fb\u30fb<\/h2>\n<p>\u7d50\u679c\u306f\u4e0b\u8a18\u306e\u3088\u3046\u3067\u3057\u305f\u3002\u306a\u304a\u3001\u3053\u306e\u671f\u9593\uff081928\u5e74\u304b\u30892016\u5e74\u307e\u3067\uff09\u306e50\uff05\u682a\u5f0f\uff1a50\uff05\u50b5\u5238\u306e\u30dd\u30fc\u30c8\u30d5\u30a9\u30ea\u30aa\u306e\u5e74\u5e73\u5747\u5229\u56de\u308a\u306f8.40\uff05\u3067\u3057\u305f\u3002\u3053\u308c\u306f\u3042\u304f\u307e\u3067\u904e\u53bb\u306e\u6210\u7e3e\u3067\u3042\u308a\u3001\u4eca\u5f8c\u3082\u540c\u3058\u3088\u3046\u306a\u30a2\u30ed\u30b1\u30fc\u30b7\u30e7\u30f3\u3067\u6295\u8cc7\u3092\u3059\u308b\u5834\u5408\u3001\u540c\u3058\u3088\u3046\u306a\u5229\u56de\u308a\u304c\u51fa\u308b\u3068\u3044\u3046\u78ba\u7d04\u306f\u3042\u308a\u307e\u305b\u3093\u306e\u3067\u3001\u3054\u7406\u89e3\u304f\u3060\u3055\u3044\u3002<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-4463\" src=\"http:\/\/smartandresponsible.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/07\/cape.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"704\" height=\"423\" srcset=\"https:\/\/smartandresponsible.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/07\/cape.png 704w, https:\/\/smartandresponsible.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/07\/cape-300x180.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 704px) 100vw, 704px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>\u6210\u529f\u7387\uff08Success rate\uff09\u3067\u3082\u6700\u7d42\u6b8b\u9ad8\uff08Median portfolio ending value\uff09\u3067\u3082\u3001\u969b\u7acb\u3063\u3066\u512a\u308c\u305f\u7d50\u679c\u306b\u306a\u3063\u305f\u306e\u304c\u3001CAPE\u3092\u4f7f\u3063\u305f\u65b9\u6cd5\u3067\u3057\u305f\u3002\u5148\u306b\u66f8\u3044\u305f\u901a\u308a\uff23\uff21\uff30\uff25\u306f\u3001\u305d\u306e\u6642\u306eS&amp;P500\u30a4\u30f3\u30c7\u30c3\u30af\u30b9\u306e\u5024\u3092\u3001\u904e\u53bb10\u5e74\u306e\u5229\u56de\u308a(10\u5e74\u9593\u306e\u5909\u52d5\u5e73\u5747)\u3067\u5272\u3063\u305f\u3082\u306e\u3067\u3001\u305d\u306e\u6642\u306e\u4fa1\u683c\u304c\u5229\u56de\u308a\u306b\u6bd4\u3057\u3066\u5272\u9ad8\u304b\u5272\u5b89\u304b\u3092\u5224\u65ad\u3059\u308b\u305f\u3081\u306b\u4f7f\u308f\u308c\u307e\u3059\u3002\u3053\u306e\u30b7\u30e5\u30df\u30ec\u30fc\u30b7\u30e7\u30f3\u3067\u306f\u3001\u5272\u9ad8\u306a\u3089\u3070\u58f2\u308a\u6642\u3067\u682a\u5f0f\u30d5\u30a1\u30f3\u30c9\u3092\u58f2\u308b\u3001\u5272\u5b89\u306a\u3089\u682a\u5f0f\u30d5\u30a1\u30f3\u30c9\u306b\u306f\u624b\u3092\u4ed8\u3051\u305a\u50b5\u5238\u30d5\u30a1\u30f3\u30c9\u3092\u58f2\u308b\u3053\u3068\u3067$40,000\u3092\u78ba\u4fdd\u3057\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002\u3053\u306e\u30b7\u30e5\u30df\u30ec\u30fc\u30b7\u30e7\u30f3\u3092\u898b\u308b\u9650\u308a\u3001CAPE\u306f\u512a\u308c\u305f\u30de\u30fc\u30b1\u30c3\u30c8\u30bf\u30a4\u30df\u30f3\u30b0\u306e\u6307\u6a19\u3067\u3042\u308a\u3001\u30dd\u30fc\u30c8\u30d5\u30a9\u30ea\u30aa\u3092\u67af\u6e07\u3055\u305b\u306a\u3044\u6210\u529f\u7387\u306f\uff19\uff11\uff05\u3001\uff13\uff10\u5e74\u5f8c\u306e\u6b8b\u9ad8\u3082\u4ed6\u306e\u65b9\u6cd5\u306b\u5927\u304d\u304f\u5dee\u3092\u3064\u3051\u3066\u30c8\u30c3\u30d7\u3067\u3057\u305f\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\uff13\u5e74\u5909\u52d5\u5e73\u5747\u3001\uff17\u5e74\u5909\u52d5\u5e73\u5747\u306e\u5229\u56de\u308a\u3092\u4f7f\u3063\u305f\u30de\u30fc\u30b1\u30c3\u30c8\u30bf\u30a4\u30df\u30f3\u30b0\u306f\u7d50\u679c\u304c\u601d\u308f\u3057\u304f\u306a\u3044\u3088\u3046\u3067\u3059\u3002\u904e\u53bb\uff13\u5e74\u3001\u904e\u53bb\uff17\u5e74\u306e\u5229\u56de\u308a\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u3092\u4f7f\u3063\u3066\u3082\u3001\u305d\u308c\u304c\u300c\u4eca\u3001\u58f2\u308a\u6642\u304b\u300d\u306b\u306f\u53cd\u6620\u3057\u306a\u3044\u3068\u3044\u3046\u7d50\u679c\u3067\u3059\u3002\u300c\u4eca\u3001\u58f2\u308a\u6642\u304b\u300d\u3092\u5224\u65ad\u3059\u308b\u306b\u306f\u3001\u305d\u306e\u6642\u306e\u5024\u304c\u5272\u9ad8\u304b\u306b\u304b\u304b\u3063\u3066\u304f\u308b\u306e\u3067\u3001\u8003\u3048\u3066\u307f\u308c\u3070\u5f53\u305f\u308a\u307e\u3048\u306e\u6c17\u3082\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002\u904e\u53bb\u5229\u56de\u308a\u306e\u4e2d\u3067\u306f\u3001\u53bb\u5e74\u306e\u6210\u7e3e\u3092\u4f7f\u3046\u306e\u304c\u6bd4\u8f03\u7684\u3088\u3044\u7d50\u679c\u3092\u3082\u305f\u3089\u3057\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002\u3082\u3063\u3068\u3082\u6700\u8fd1\u306e\u5024\u306e\u4f38\u3073\u3092\u8003\u3048\u5408\u308f\u305b\u308b\u306e\u3067\u3001\u78ba\u7387\u7684\u306b\u5272\u9ad8\u306a\u3068\u304d\u306b\u58f2\u308c\u308b\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u304c\u5897\u3048\u308b\u3068\u3044\u3046\u3053\u3068\u3067\u3057\u3087\u3046\u304b\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u8208\u5473\u6df1\u3044\u306e\u306f\u3044\u3064\u308250\uff05\uff1a50\uff05\u306e\u30a2\u30ed\u30b1\u30fc\u30b7\u30e7\u30f3\u3092\u4fdd\u3064\u3088\u3046\u306b\u5f15\u304d\u51fa\u3057\u3092\u3059\u308b\u30ea\u30d0\u30e9\u30f3\u30b9\u306e\u65b9\u6cd5\u3092\u3068\u3063\u305f\u5834\u5408\u306f\u3001\u7d50\u679c\u304c\u6700\u3082\u3088\u304f\u306a\u3044\u3053\u3068\u3067\u3059\u3002\u30ea\u30d0\u30e9\u30f3\u30b9\u6cd5\u3067\u306f\u3001\u3088\u308a\u6b8b\u9ad8\u304c\u5897\u3048\u305f\u30d5\u30a1\u30f3\u30c9\u306e\u307b\u3046\u304b\u3089\u512a\u5148\u7684\u306b\u5f15\u304d\u51fa\u3057\u3092\u3059\u308b\u308f\u3051\u3067\u3001\u7406\u306b\u304b\u306a\u3063\u305f\u3088\u3046\u306b\u601d\u3044\u307e\u3059\u304c\u3001\u305f\u306050\uff05\uff1a50\uff05\u306b\u30a2\u30ed\u30b1\u30fc\u30b7\u30e7\u30f3\u304c\u623b\u3063\u305f\u3068\u3053\u308d\u3067\u3001\u305d\u308c\u4ee5\u4e0a\u306f\u5f15\u304d\u51fa\u3057\u3092\u3057\u307e\u305b\u3093\uff08\u305f\u3068\u3048\u3070\u3001\u682a\u5f0f40\uff05\u306b\u306a\u308b\u307e\u3067\u682a\u30d5\u30a1\u30f3\u30c9\u3092\u58f2\u308b\u306a\u3069\uff09\u3002CAPE\u306e\u5834\u5408\u306f\u3001\u5272\u9ad8\u6642\u306a\u3089\u300150\uff05\u3092\u5272\u3063\u3066\u3082\u5f15\u304d\u51fa\u3059\u3068\u3044\u3046\u30b1\u30fc\u30b9\u3082\u3042\u308a\u3048\u307e\u3059\u3002\u305f\u3068\u3048\u30a2\u30ed\u30b1\u30fc\u30b7\u30e7\u30f3\u304c\u5d29\u308c\u3066\u3067\u3082\u3001\u305d\u306e\u6642\u306e\u5272\u9ad8\u30fb\u5272\u5b89\u306e\u76ee\u5b89\u3067\u5f15\u304d\u51fa\u3059\u307b\u3046\u304c\u512a\u308c\u305f\u7d50\u679c\u3092\u6b8b\u3059\u3068\u3044\u3046\u3053\u3068\u3067\u3057\u3087\u3046\u304b\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u3055\u3089\u306b\u8208\u5473\u6df1\u3044\u306e\u306f\u6a5f\u3092\u898b\u306a\u3044Equal 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